Frank Dahl has owned bars, restaurants and lodges throughout Alaska and in the Lower 48 for over five decades including Blues Central at the Chef’s Inn. As the founder of Anchorage CHARR and a former Board Member of Alaska CHARR, he has been active in hospitality and tourism industry policy development for years. He is a member of Rotary and recipient of an Alaska Legislative Citation for Public Service.

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Frank Dahl is a 50+ year restauranteur and hospitality industry member who has served as President of both Alaska CHARR and Anchorage CHARR, received an Alaska State Legislature citation for exemplary service in his industry, and is a Paul Harris Fellow in Rotary International.

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While my goal was to get an idea of how many of each there were in each legislative district, a look at gross numbers is instructive.  For instance, the State of Alaska reports 457,662 total sport fish licenses in various forms held in 2018.  Of those, only 169,268 were held by Alaskans.  This means that 288,394 were held by visitors, and for every single sport fish license held by Alaskans, 1.7 tourist licenses were sold.  Conclusion?  When someone tells you that sport fishing for tourists is not important in this state, they are lying to you.

How to maximize this growing industry? Simple.  When the tourist season starts, rivers, streams and other bodies of water onshore and offshore statewide need to be teeming with fish, and those fish need to be available through the entire season.

I may have been overly harsh on Chuck Kopp (R, Dist 24), accusing him of using his office to support his business.  To be fair, every single other legislator in commfish-heavy parts of the state could be accused of doing similar things, using their office to support commercial fishermen in their districts at the cost of support for other user groups.  This was particularly true in SE, the Kenai, Western AK, and for some odd reason, the North Slope / Arctic region.

A breakdown of various regions is instructive.

• Fairbanks.  3 House members voted against Johnstone.  This group has a total of 6,954 sportfish license holders on the voter rolls, 1,019 dipnetters, and only 71 commercial fishermen.
• Anchorage.  7 house members voted against Johnstone.  In this group, there are 14,442 sportfish permit holders on the voter rolls, 3,261 dipnetters and only 217 commercial fishermen.
• All 3 Kenai House members voted against Johnstone.  There are 13,513 sportfish license holders who are registered voters, 3,261 dipnetters and 1,113 commercial fishermen.
• Finally, in Southeast, all 4 House members voted against Johnstone. In this region, there are 15,058 sport fish license holders, 45 dipnetters, and a whopping 2,463 commercial fishermen.

What to make of all this?  First, a caveat:  There is no reason any of these groups can’t hold permits or licenses from another group.  Indeed, dipnet permits require an active fishing license.  OTOH, commercial fishermen are unlikely to dipnet.

• Fairbanks: Given the large number of resident sportfish license holders, there is no reason for any Fairbanks House or Senate member to vote to support commercial fishermen in Fairbanks.  Additionally, most dipnetters from here participate in the Copper River fishery.
• Anchorage.  Once again, a large number of both sportfish and dipnet license holders among those who voted against Johnstone and very few commercial fishermen (average of 21/legislative district).
• Kenai.  A large number of both sportfish and dipnet fishery participants.  Even though there are over 1,100 commercial fishermen, they are still outnumbered 15:1.
• Southeast.  Once again, a large number of sportfish license holders, almost no dipnetters, and a large number of commercial fishermen.  Commfish is still outnumbered by 6:1.

If we are doing this for political purposes, we need to identify political risk in votes to support commercial fishing over the other user groups.  For this breakdown, I will use any victory in the last election 2018 primary or general for House members, 2018 or 2016 for state senators.  I will artificially select anything under 1,000 votes as a potential risk.

So, who is at risk?  Data is all from Ballotpedia Alaska House and Alaska Senate.  I did not include those who ran unopposed in the primary.

• Fairbanks.  2 of 4 legislators who voted against Johnstone won their last election by less than 1,000 votes.
• Anchorage.  6 of the 11 legislators who voted against Johnstone won their last election or primary by less than 1,000 votes.
• Kenai.  2 of the 4 legislators who voted against Johnstone won their last election or primary by less than 1,000 votes.
• Southeast.  Only 1 of the 4 legislators who voted against Johnstone won their last election by less than 1,000 votes.

From this analysis, I put roughly a third of the legislators who voted in support of commercial fishing over the interests of sportfish and dipnet people in their respective districts at risk by their actions last session.  Perhaps it is time to remind them of the error of their ways.

Final thought is this.  At the height of its operation roughly 1990, commercial logging in Alaska (primarily Southeast) employed around 4,600 people.  That part of the state economy was intentionally shut down by the actions of environmentalists, people in the tourist industry who didn’t like looking at clear-cut logging tracts, commercial and sport fishermen, all orchestrated by the Clinton administration.  Today, employment in that sector is less than a tenth of what it used to be, with commensurate damage to the overall economy in Southeast.

And they are at it again with opposition to Pebble and other mines in the interior.

We in this state have a history of using the heavy hand of government rather than the intelligent workings of the marketplace to shut down whole industries competing for resources.  And the factual basis of various charges made matters little in those discussions.  Commercial fishing has been in the middle of most of these, almost exclusively on the side of the heavy hand, which will be their undoing.

My prediction is that a time will come, sooner rather than later, where care and feeding of the tourist industry here in Alaska will require (demand?) more fish in our streams than commfish will be able (or willing) to allow and still operate a viable business.  The obvious solution to this would be to embrace the new world of onshore and offshore fish farming.  Do it early, make a controlled transition, slowly and systematically remove the commercial nets from Alaskan waters and everyone will be happy.  Dig your heels in and fight it tooth and nail (which I expect), and it will only be a matter of time before that fast-moving freight train runs you and your business down.

The heavy hand of government will turn against commercial fishermen, and due to their past support (even demands) for those heavy-handed actions in Southeast, Copper River, Cook Inlet, Bristol Bay and elsewhere, nobody will care.  Why?  Partly because there are simply not enough of them to matter.  Partly because of their use of their political clout to gain exclusive access to what is a shared resource.  As a result, they have completely alienated those of us who would otherwise be friends and supporters.  They will have sown the wind and will reap the whirlwind.  And they will have nobody to blame but themselves.

Alex Gimarc lives in Anchorage since retiring from the military in 1997. His interests include science and technology, environment, energy, economics, military affairs, fishing and disabilities policies. His weekly column “Interesting Items” is a summary of news stories with substantive Alaska-themed topics. He was a small business owner and Information Technology professional.

The post Further Analysis of Fishing Licenses and Permits appeared first on Alaska Politics and Elections.

I acquired license and permit lists for all commfish permits, all sportfish license holders, and all personal use permit holders for 2018.  Input the data into a voter database and did a comparison between gross numbers broken down by legislative district.  The numbers should be in the 90^th percentile.

In gross numbers, just under 20% of all Alaska voters hold sportfish licenses.  Just over 3% participate in either the Cook Inlet or Copper River dipnet fisheries.  And finally, a mere 1.53% of Alaskans hold commercial fishing permits.

With these numbers, you would think any dispute between commercial fishermen and any other user group would be resolved decisively in favor of either or both other user groups.  That rarely happens.  Why?  Because commercial fishermen are organized and quite aggressive in pushing their interests.  The other user groups aren’t.

Perhaps it is time they were.

Should sport fishermen and to a lesser extent personal use (dipnet) fishermen organize to pursue their personal interests, the result would be huge.  Can you say, “Little Big Horn?”

As a working example, let’s take a look as the legislature’s rejection of Karl Johnstone for the Board of Fish last session.  There were 33 legislators who voted against his nomination.  Opposition appeared to be two-pronged, with legislators who represented parts of the state with heavy commfish interests universally voting against his nomination.  Democrats, particularly those here in Anchorage, followed ‘Poison’ Ivy Spohnholtz lead and tapped into their inner “Tall Man Bad’ courtesy of her last minute, fraudulent #MeToo charge against Johnstone and voted mostly as a block against his nomination.  Throw in a few Republican outliers such as Cathy Giessel, Chuck Kopp and Click Bishop, and you end up with a 33-vote rejection of the nomination.

What sort of risk did these legislators embrace with these votes?  Quite a lot based on the voter totals in their district.  But it is only quite a lot if someone does something about it, perhaps during the upcoming primary season.

‘Poison’ Ivy Spohnholz (Dist 16) here in Anchorage has nearly 2,100 sportfish license holders in her district.  They outnumber commercial fishermen in her district 90:1.  Personal use (dipnet) people in her district outnumber commfish 22:1.  Might be a good idea to remind them of her failure to support their interests this July when the Kenai commfish office approves the fifth commercial emergency opening in a row, removing second run reds from the Kenai River.

Her House compatriots Josephson, Drummond, Tarr, Fields and Claman have similar numbers in their districts.

On the Republican side, we have Chuck Kopp (Dist 24), a commercial fisherman who appears to be using his position as a legislator to prop up his commercial fishing business.  Sport fishermen in Kopp’s district outnumber commfish permit holders a mere 66:1.  Dipnet people outnumber commfish 16:1.

We have Senate President Cathy Giessel (Dist N), who had the opportunity to send the nomination back to committee but chose not to do so.  In her district, sportfish outnumbers commfish a mere 42:1; dipnet 10:1.  The word among sportfish advocates has been that she has long been a supporter of Cook Inlet commercial fishermen, often at the expense of every other user group.  If someone organizes the other user groups during her upcoming primary, things may get quite interesting.

There was a time when democrats knew how to count votes.  Here in Anchorage, at least, that time is long past as we have three state senators and six house members who blew off their constituents who are sport fishermen in favor of some combination of specious #MeToo / Tall Man Bad charges.

Perhaps it is time to reeducate them on the error of their ways.

Final consideration via a timely reminder from Craig Medred is sheer economic impact of the various user groups.  If the legislature looks at allocation of salmon in this state as a simple jobs program for the participants, it is long past time to consider the Board of Fish to prioritize the positive economic impact of sport and personal use fishing.

My next column on this will be an analysis of votes for the incumbents that opposed Johnstone and see who is at greatest risk based on their votes against his confirmation.

Alex Gimarc lives in Anchorage since retiring from the military in 1997. His interests include science and technology, environment, energy, economics, military affairs, fishing and disabilities policies. His weekly column “Interesting Items” is a summary of news stories with substantive Alaska-themed topics. He was a small business owner and Information Technology professional.

The post Analysis of Fishing Licenses and Permit Holders appeared first on Alaska Politics and Elections.

In Anchorage a member of the teachers union (AEA) total dues would be $1,038, and $345.07 of that would go toward political activities and candidate support.  But an AEA member can opt out of the political fee under the U.S. Supreme Court decision (Hudson v. Chicago Teachers Union).  What gets very fuzzy is the amount of dues being used for political purposes.  Note that even though an AEA member opts out of the political fee, that member must still pay what is called the agency fee.  This is because the AEA union has “exclusive representation” in its contract which means no on else, including an individual teacher, can negotiate a contract with the school district.

Not only that, but the union member must opt out every year.  When you discontinue some of your cable TV channels, do you have to opt out each and every year?  And to make it even more difficult, the member must opt out during a very narrow window during the school year.  Sometimes this window is only 2 weeks and it changes the opt out month every year.  Try to follow the bouncing ball!  If one misses the opt out window, then too bad you pay the full amount of dues.

The crux of the Friedrichs case is that this system of mandatory agency fees violates First Amendment rights of Free Speech and Association because the opt-out members are forced to support the union even if they are not forced to be a member.

See Full Story at alaskapolicyforum.org

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BP is cutting about 270 Alaska jobs, employees learned today. A  spokeswoman says that amounts to 13 percent of the company’s workforce in the state, with the majority of reductions made to the oil and gas exploration division.

As oil prices remain low, the cutbacks in Alaska are part of a much broader reduction to BP’s worldwide operations. Globally, BP is slashing 4,000 jobs including positions in the Lower 48 and the Gulf of Mexico.

Governor Bill Walker issued the following statement Tuesday in response to BP’s recently announced plans to cut about 270 Alaska jobs:

“Today’s announcement that BP will be cutting 4,000 jobs worldwide is concerning. However, this further emphasizes the need to pursue additional resource development opportunities in Alaska, including the 1002 section of ANWR and the Alaska LNG project. I am committed to continue working with producers like BP to address low oil prices and declining production, and ensure these companies maintain a strong presence in Alaska. I appreciate the contributions BP has made throughout our state, and am confident they will continue to be leaders in Alaska’s oil and gas industry in the future.”

See Full Story at KTUU.com

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In the past, slumps in the price of crude have prompted major producers like Saudi Arabia to cut back output in order to tighten supplies, thereby boosting prices. But as American and Canadian producers have expanded production, Middle East producers continue to pump, hoping the crash in prices will push higher-cost North American producers out of business.

So far, the strategy seems to be backfiring.

“Basically their intent was to drown us (in oil), but they’ve not got that done,” Continental Resources CEO Harold Hamm told CNBC on Tuesday. “It’s been a monumental mistake for them — I might add, a trillion-dollar mistake.”

Crude oil prices leveled off at about $32 per barrel on Tuesday, after falling close to a 12-year low.

See Full Story at CNBC

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In this article we review recent trends in Alaska’s economy and the economic outlook for the near-term and longerterm future. We begin with a brief description of the structure of Alaska’s economy and key factors that drive it. Next we review historical trends in the economy. We then discuss factors likely to affect the economy in the near-term future, including the dramatic decline in oil prices and state oil revenues and the state’s response to the resulting very large deficits. Finally, we discuss the longer-term outlook for the Alaska economy, including the potential economic
impacts of an LNG (liquefied natural gas) export project.

Alaska’s economy is complicated. In this brief article we have to omit important details due to lack of space. In particular, we do not address regional variation in the economy, which is significant, or the significant changes occurring in many industries.

Alaska’s future economic outlook is uncertain. We can’t predict with certainty the combined effects of the many factors which may affect it. Our primary goal is to describe potential implications of factors which we know will affect it.

See Full Story at AKBIZMAG.com

The post The Top Alaskan Economists Explain Our Economy appeared first on Alaska Politics and Elections.

S&P credit analyst Gabriel Petek wrote: The rating actions reflect our view of the state’s credit quality as oil prices have continued to slide, falling below forecasts from earlier this year, causing an already large structural gulf between unrestricted general fund revenues and expenditures to widen further.

S&P says Alaska has the resources to solve the problem and called on legislators to implement reforms — or else.

If lawmakers do not enact significant fiscal reforms to reduce the state’s fiscal imbalance during its 2016 legislative session, Alaska’s downward rating transition will likely persist. Furthermore, it’s possible that the downward rating migration could accelerate if lawmakers continue to fail to act as the state’s budget reserves (not including the permanent fund) approach depletion. On the other hand, the state’s large reservoir of financial assets provides it with options that we believe have the potential to stabilize its credit quality.

See Full Story at Barrons.com

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